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不敗的魔術師 | 27-Dec-15, 23:50 | 投資理財, 詩詞歌賦, 術數玄奇, 逆流而上 | (1379 Reads)

港豬最鍾意講錢,無論係邊一間書局,當眼位置實有一張檯係放投資理財書籍,而坊間亦有大量財經博客、食息達人等應運而生,周圍投稿吸睛者有之,設館授徒者亦有之(至於其人有無牌照去做financial consultant、提供投資意見,抑或只是走灰色地帶分享知識,則無人知曉)。當中這類投資書籍或進修班多以「財務自由」作招徠,標榜「被動收入>主動收入」,則可以提早休做(自己)愛做的事,又或是打打自由工,不用再看老闆面色。

呢種思維基本上無錯,人生不能只是為工作而奔波,但問題是甚麼為之「主動收入」,甚麼為之「被動收入」呢?是不是要主動返工或做生意營商就是「主動收入」,而坐係度唔使做就可以收嘅錢就係「被動收入」呢?其中又有無外國勢力參與的「國際標準」呢?

劉浩龍 

思覺失調

作詞:Keith Ling

作曲:Keith Ling

編曲:Billy Chan

監製:Billy Chan

仍好嗎 重會每天失眠到 天光嗎

大頭蝦 沒帶門匙也許很 勞氣吧

仍關心妳願每天問

最後也明白角色時已不相襯

還由他去代我為妳緊

問太多根本不會講 束縛不來如人馬座

亦因愛妳令妳不安 才離開不再講

願明天 能不再為妳痴纏

明白改不變 妳亦離開很遠

就算花光心機守每一個諾言

最後誰又會可憐

極危險 連思覺像也失調

無辦法接受現實 自製假想能延續故事

妳的聲線還仍言猶在耳 已分不清楚我位置

問太多根本不會講 束縛不來如人馬座

亦因愛妳令妳不安 才離開不再講

願明天 能不再為妳痴纏

明白改不變 妳亦離開很遠

就算花光心機守每一個諾言

最後誰又會可憐

極危險 連思覺像也失調還是我太犯賤

或是我太介意 太過膚淺

百篇短訊留言徒然又試 始終得不到妳在意

留低即使很多的透支

如今已做錯 記下了只有缺點

太心痛是我的一手包辦令妳心變酸

彌補如何還是太遲

若然妳 如果有日說婚期

我這生福氣 也用來祝福妳

仍收起曾同渡每一齣戲飛

而這票尾 還應否捨棄

魔術師財商無乜,反而玄學術數就略懂皮毛,知道紫微斗數中的武曲星為「主動求財」,太陰則以「積聚藏富」,果然係「算命佬呃你十年八年」;不過講到「國際標準」,具中國特色的紫微斗數就派不上用場,都係要視美帝為馬首是瞻。例如帝國稅局 Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Tax Topics Topic 400 - Types of Income 網站便定義了大量不同形式的收入,鉅細無遺;其中 Topic 425 - Passive Activities – Losses and Credits 及 Publication 925 (2014), Passive Activity and At-Risk Rules 便指出:

Topic 425 - Passive Activities – Losses and Credits

Passive activities include trade or business activities in which you do not materially participate. You materially participate in an activity if you are involved in the operation of the activity on a regular, continuous and substantial basis. In general, rental activities, including rental real estate activities, are also passive activities even if you do materially participate. However, rental real estate activities in which you materially participate are not passive activities if you qualify as a real estate professional. Additionally, there is a limited exception for rental real estate activities in which you actively participate. The rules for active participation are different from those for material participation.

Publication 925 - Main Content

Passive Activities

There are two kinds of passive activities.

  • Trade or business activities in which you do not materially participate during the year.
  • Rental activities, even if you do materially participate in them, unless you are a real estate professional.

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Trade or Business Activities

A trade or business activity is an activity that:

  • Involves the conduct of a trade or business (that is, deductions would be allowable under section 162 of the Internal Revenue Code if other limitations, such as the passive activity rules, did not apply),
  • Is conducted in anticipation of starting a trade or business, or
  • Involves research or experimental expenditures that are deductible under Internal Revenue Code section 174 (or that would be deductible if you chose to deduct rather than capitalize them).

A trade or business activity does not include a rental activity or the rental of property that is incidental to an activity of holding the property for investment.

Rental Activities

A rental activity is a passive activity even if you materially participated in that activity, unless you materially participated as a real estate professional. See Real Estate Professional under Activities That Are Not Passive Activities , later. An activity is a rental activity if tangible property (real or personal) is used by customers or held for use by customers, and the gross income (or expected gross income) from the activity represents amounts paid (or to be paid) mainly for the use of the property.

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Activities That Are Not Passive Activities

The following are not passive activities.

  • Trade or business activities in which you materially participated for the tax year.

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  • An activity of trading personal property for the account of those who own interests in the activity. See Temporary Regulations section 1.469-1T(e)(6).
  • Rental real estate activities in which you materially participated as a real estate professional. See Real Estate Professional , later.

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Material Participation

A trade or business activity is not a passive activity if you materially participated in the activity.

Material participation tests.

You materially participated in a trade or business activity for a tax year if you satisfy any of the following tests.

1. You participated in the activity for more than 500 hours.

2. Your participation was substantially all the participation in the activity of all individuals for the tax year, including the participation of individuals who did not own any interest in the activity.

3. You participated in the activity for more than 100 hours during the tax year, and you participated at least as much as any other individual (including individuals who did not own any interest in the activity) for the year.

4. The activity is a significant participation activity, and you participated in all significant participation activities for more than 500 hours. A significant participation activity is any trade or business activity in which you participated for more than 100 hours during the year and in which you did not materially participate under any of the material participation tests, other than this test. See Significant Participation Passive Activities , under Recharacterization of Passive Income, later.

5. You materially participated in the activity (other than by meeting this fifth test) for any 5 (whether or not consecutive) of the 10 immediately preceding tax years.

6. The activity is a personal service activity in which you materially participated for any 3 (whether or not consecutive) preceding tax years. An activity is a personal service activity if it involves the performance of personal services in the fields of health (including veterinary services), law, engineering, architecture, accounting, actuarial science, performing arts, consulting, or any other trade or business in which capital is not a material income-producing factor.

7. Based on all the facts and circumstances, you participated in the activity on a regular, continuous, and substantial basis during the year.

You did not materially participate in the activity under test (7) if you participated in the activity for 100 hours or less during the year. Your participation in managing the activity does not count in determining whether you materially participated under this test if:

Any person other than you received compensation for managing the activity, or

Any individual spent more hours during the tax year managing the activity than you did (regardless of whether the individual was compensated for the management services).

Participation.   In general, any work you do in connection with an activity in which you own an interest is treated as participation in the activity.

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Participation as an investor.   You do not treat the work you do in your capacity as an investor in an activity as participation unless you are directly involved in the day-to-day management or operations of the activity. Work you do as an investor includes:

  • Studying and reviewing financial statements or reports on operations of the activity,
  • Preparing or compiling summaries or analyses of the finances or operations of the activity for your own use, and
  • Monitoring the finances or operations of the activity in a nonmanagerial capacity.

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Real Estate Professional

Generally, rental activities are passive activities even if you materially participated in them. However, if you qualified as a real estate professional, rental real estate activities in which you materially participated are not passive activities.

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Qualifications.   You qualified as a real estate professional for the year if you met both of the following requirements.

  • More than half of the personal services you performed in all trades or businesses during the tax year were performed in real property trades or businesses in which you materially participated.
  • You performed more than 750 hours of services during the tax year in real property trades or businesses in which you materially participated.

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Passive Activity Income

Passive activity income includes all income from passive activities and generally includes gain from disposition of an interest in a passive activity or property used in a passive activity.

Passive activity income does not include the following items.

  • Income from an activity that is not a passive activity. These activities are discussed under Activities That Are Not Passive Activities , earlier.
  • Portfolio income. This includes interest, dividends, annuities, and royalties not derived in the ordinary course of a trade or business. It includes gain or loss from the disposition of property that produces these types of income or that is held for investment. The exclusion for portfolio income does not apply to self-charged interest treated as passive activity income. For more information on self-charged interest, see Self-charged interest , earlier.
  • Personal service income. This includes salaries, wages, commissions, self-employment income from trade or business activities in which you materially participated, deferred compensation, taxable social security and other retirement benefits, and payments from partnerships to partners for personal services.

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坊間一般的理財書籍和博客等,大都只是 lossely define 「被動收入」為唔使返工都有錢收,其實即係 non-salary income;「主動收入」則相反,屬於 salary income 或 personal service income(即使你係做生意做老闆屬自僱,一樣有 salary)。但以美帝定義,股息或債劵派息之類的 non-salary income 卻不是「被動收入」,而另外定義為 portfolio income。

Portfolio income 與 passive income 之間有甚麼理念上的分別呢?以魔術師無財商猜想,是上市公司派息,除淨後現金減少,價值下降,故市場價格亦相應減少,以維持「溢價」;倘若日後(包括「無限補時」後)公司股價升回未除淨前水平,那只是因為(1)公司營運產生盈利,價值又升返上去,及/或(2)公司股票的市場溢價有所變動所導致。同理,債券派息後,現金流便會少了一次,也就是將其「內在價值」派給投資者了。以此觀之,似乎以某投資項目有否「派出內在價值」來定義是否「被動收入」更為有理:有派出則是 portfolio income,反之就是 passive income。

由此路進,一般「業餘收租」便可以當成是「被動收入」:業主將物業使用權賣給租客某段時間,其得益就是租金收入,其間並不牽涉派出物業的「內在價值」。即使說「單位內」裝潢家電有若干價值,被租客「使用」後會有損耗,但這些損耗也只屬租客使用整個單位期間的 collateral damage,不屬於將裝潢家電的價值「派回」給業主。

例外情形是標榜以收租過活的收租仔,只要在一年內超過一半的總工時,或750小時去睇樓買樓搵租客搞維修等與收租業務有關的項目,佢就會自動成為 Real Estate Professional,則這些租金收入就不算是「被動收入」,而是「主動收入」,皆因其人的「主要業務」就是「收租」是也。

又,類似美帝之401(k) plan,強積金來自打工仔工作供款,有工作則有,無工作則無,只是延遲至退休之後才取出,故不算是「被動收入」;相反「全民退保」這種「偽退休金」(只要年紀夠大,即使從未工作亦可申領,與有否 personal service income 並無關係)似乎就應該算是「被動收入」,真係估唔到社福棍咁積極幫港豬們爭取被動收入咁偉大!

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寫完先發現散戶blog王寫了篇《也談談股息》,留言又讚到天上有地下無,魔術師就覺得有點離奇:

1. 股息是被動收入嗎?被動收入是指不用工作而得到的現金流入. 債息被稱為定息收入(Fixed Income), 投資債券收到債息, 有人會反對債息是被動收入嗎? 買樓收租, 有人會反對租金是被動收入嗎? ...如果所有債券到期都可以收回本金, 這個世界就不會有Credit Default Swaps.

魔:如上文所示,美帝政府就反對「債息是被動收入」、「租金」某程度上可以不是「被動收入」。Blog王講講下又去咗bond default risk,咁收股息又能肯定次次都有高息派?default risk跟「被動收入」的定義有關嗎?

2. 股息從哪裡來? 

魔:基礎投資問題,跟魔術師上文所寫的一樣,不過blog王的例子有點引喻失義。

3. 為什麼股價在除淨日要扣除股息? 

魔:基礎投資問題,跟魔術師上文寫的一樣。

4. 高股息回報不一定高? 但其實, 有這種看法的人是錯誤地假設, 只有保留在公司的現金才可以賺取回報, 而現金股息沒有賺取回報. 

魔:股息再投資是閣下的投資手法,自己下決定,可以繼續買同一隻股,也可以作其他投資,能不能賺取回報,誰也不知道,也不能「錯誤地假設」某公司永遠派高息。如果公司不派息就是公司管理層代你下決定,資金「自動循環」再用。無論如何,股息複式再投資也好,拿現金點用都好,跟高股息回報高還是低沒有直接關係,回報率依然是以公式 return = (P1-P0+D)/P0為基礎。

總結:筆者認識有些退休人士, 就是靠股息, 債息, (樓宇)收租提供收入過日子. 說股息不是被動收入的人, 應該多去一些收息股的股東大會, 向一些退休人士請教學習, 他們可是縱橫股市多年的老手呢.

魔:如果係「靠股息, 債息, (樓宇)收租提供收入過日子」,那就沒可能「股息再投資」了(仲記得當年電盈(00008.HK)的一眾食息老人嗎?)。如上文,依美帝定義,股息只能算是 portfolio income,不是被動收入;如果將 non-personal service income定義為被動收入,那只是從定義裡再證明自己一次的循環論證而已。

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睇睇下仲有個甚麼勞什子的「零成本投資法」。例如買10,000股,每股$1,當股價升到上$1.5之時,便沽出6,667股,取回$10,000「成本」,剩下的3,333股就是「免費」、「零成本」,「心理壓力大減」云云。

其實呢種只是自欺欺人的說法,mental accounting而已(好多賭仔都係咁諗法)。其實,到你賺到$1.5之時,你副身家已經有$15,000,本來的$10,000早已和賺回來的$5,000「混」在一起,成為一個個體,都是你的「身家」:你沽出2/3身家,取回$10,000,其實就是從「本金」$10,000中取回2/3,即$6,667;又從賺來的$5,000取回2/3,即$3,333。

弱水三千,只取一瓢:一桶水倒了進泳池裡,就和泳池裡本來的水混和了,點可能任你個腦去安排,以思覺失調大法便可搯返一桶你「本來的水」出來呢?

***

伸延閱讀:

Internal Revenue Service (IRS):Are Your Social Security Benefits Taxable?

流星:「立場勝於道理」活生生例子

塘人:自住樓與三種收入

Ricky:零成本,無限回報

瘋子:股本回收方法

2015/12/28 00:16:24 

(註:如讀者諸君發現個「留言」鍵唔見咗,依然可以照舊留言,拍Enter即可。強烈建議留使用IE或Firefox,並要事先起稿backup。) 


[19] 移形換影大法

"即是說以自僱形式幫塘人管理收租物業的Property Manager的公司收入都可以歸入「被動收入」嗎?"

"塘人兄在問上面的池裡漁嗎?於我而言,你什麼也不幹時,這個收入是否還存在,就可以看到它有多「被動」了。"

問大師變成問老池, 而且企定定食波餅就係被動收入


[引用] | 作者 塘人 | 30-Dec-15 18:37 | [舉報垃圾留言]

節目預告:2016年第一篇就是投資甜古。

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 30-Dec-15 19:20

[18] Re: Eric

「魔術師兄,Eric現在開始明白為何這麼多人知道政棍的本質,但政棍仍然如此有市場, 而且地位牢不可破, 長做長有。
不是政棍做得有多好,而是群眾自己選擇相信並接受政棍的一套,因為那一套聽起來最簡單、也最舒服,而是否正確則根本無人理會。」

哈哈,這就不是相同的比喻了,群眾可以唔相信財演而自己投資,但係在政治上看不到有同樣的選擇。

而家搞政治果班人,無論邊個陣營,甚至是政府官員本身,都是一堆亂象 (收私人利益、亂花公帑、亂掟野、不管民生、賣港親中/賣港親美),即使群眾知道並唔正確,又可以點?


[引用] | 作者 不敢開名 | 30-Dec-15 10:33 | [舉報垃圾留言]

即係咁,如果小三BB佢真係「為傷港」,唔係三分鐘熱度盲反盲撐,發言之前真係有做過research論點有point唔係靠流腦懶人包的話,我投佢地又點話!

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 30-Dec-15 19:19

[17] Re: 摩連奴
摩連奴 :

亞力士 :
//我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!
早幾年Triumph長期請人(笑)。
不過多女多是非,怕你招架唔嚟。
//
d女响公司是否只可載bra?

咁係咪剩係准戴bra唔准著底褲?

...


冇model 嫁...一群C9 鬆過鬆弛熊,日日咁睇,你不如一鎗打爆我個頭。。。


[引用] | 作者 Eric | 30-Dec-15 01:26 | [舉報垃圾留言]

「卿」本佳人...

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 30-Dec-15 01:52

[16] Re: 流星
流星 :

魔術師兄,流星現在開始明白為何這麼多人知道財演的本質,但財演仍然如此有市場, 而且地位牢不可破, 長做長有。
不是財演做得有多好,而是群眾自己選擇相信並接受財演的一套,因為那一套聽起來最簡單、也最舒服,而是否正確則根本無人理會。



都唔止財演,仲有一眾政棍販賣政府應該乜都管同乜都包,道理是一樣的。

魔術師兄,Eric現在開始明白為何這麼多人知道政棍的本質,但政棍仍然如此有市場, 而且地位牢不可破, 長做長有。
不是政棍做得有多好,而是群眾自己選擇相信並接受政棍的一套,因為那一套聽起來最簡單、也最舒服,而是否正確則根本無人理會。


[引用] | 作者 Eric | 30-Dec-15 01:09 | [舉報垃圾留言]

「你最淫」將錢塞落自己戶口都「好簡單」、「好舒服」。

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 30-Dec-15 02:00

[15] Re: 不敗的魔術師
不敗的魔術師 :
去下見工就知人culture?

皮毛 culture 囉!
嘩!D 枱凳古裝片茶樓嗰隻,舊式中醫嗰隻。舊過阿飛正傳入面啲鐵辦公桌!
首先見都未見就要影印我身份證,又問我出生年月日。我見嗰份 human resources 工,到 human resources department 見,咁好唔專業啫。
跟著入房一直等⋯⋯一直等⋯⋯一直等⋯⋯等咗大 1/2 粒鐘。冇人話我知發生緊咩事,我差啲以為佢哋唔記得咗我係房到等⋯⋯寂寞到夜深⋯⋯
見個 human resources assistant 三個經理一齊入嚟,警察見 board 咁。同一個問題,3 個經理以各自風格問一次。係咪想考吓我可唔可以以三種不同風格答番佢哋呢?定係等我講國際標準答案,講唔到就不停問,不罷休呢?
唔知呢。或者呢啲唔算 culture,係特色?😓


[引用] | 作者 C嬸 | 29-Dec-15 20:52 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//警察見 board 咁

我以為只有考政府工先係咁.

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 30-Dec-15 01:52

[14] Re: 流星

流星兄說對了. 我完全看不懂大師的邏輯, 距離大師既層次相差太遠


[引用] | 作者 Joseph Leung | 29-Dec-15 13:19 | [舉報垃圾留言]

瘋子邏輯更離奇(假如真的有個邏輯的話),是否「被動收入」竟可跟股價掛勾,股價有上有落,於是「被動收入」的多寡也就隨時間「飄移」。

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 18:05

[13] Re: Joseph Leung

流星無意看到某價值大師的blog中有Joseph兄的身影,不知是否就是Joseph兄所指的討論? (因見對方的回答的確沒甚邏輯XD)


[引用] | 作者 流星 | 29-Dec-15 09:51 | [舉報垃圾留言]

光明左右使,拍片一個企左一個企右.

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 10:15

[12] 同道中人

魔術兄, 首次留言, 聽池兄所言, 你是物理系, 而我是純數學系, 所以同道中人, 來握握手.

由此至終我都覺得物業收租和股息是完全不同概念, 但不明白很多人依然聽唔明, 令人費解呢.

近期跟一個開班的價值大師有一些討論, 講價值我就比不上他, 講投資學術我比不上, 但講邏輯, 我完全聽唔明佢既邏輯.

可能係理科有關, 小弟對沒邏輯的討論印象深刻. 下年年頭會公開給大家看. 希望魔術兄來看看.


[引用] | 作者 Joseph Leung | 29-Dec-15 00:03 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//由此至終我都覺得物業收租和股息是完全不同概念

//聽池兄所言, 你是物理系

物理學是我本科啟蒙,得益甚大,後來用錢騙回來的IT、MBA、新聞傳訊等碩士學位也只是聊備一格而已,倒是CFA當真要出點力,不過那些數學對比物理數學,當真是差上那麼的一大截。

//由此至終我都覺得物業收租和股息是完全不同概念

都請分享一下口喇!

//我完全聽唔明佢既邏輯.

更難費解的就是有人會在大師處讚好,又會有大師的「對頭人」處讚好, 自己好似沒甚麼意見似的, 總之做到free rider聽到人地意見就好。

//小弟對沒邏輯的討論印象深刻. 下年年頭會公開給大家看. 希望魔術兄來看看.

有得抬槓,我逢請必到,逢到必早.

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 03:23

[11] Re: 摩連奴
摩連奴 : 亞力士 :
//我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!
早幾年Triumph長期請人(笑)。
不過多女多是非,怕你招架唔嚟。
//
d女响公司是否只可載bra?

咁係咪剩係准戴bra唔准著底褲? ...


我 N 年前去見過工,的確好多女,但係係著泳衣!
哈哈!講笑!係著係出面衫外!
哈哈哈哈!都係講笑!
不過睇嚟佢哋 working environment and culture 都好老土。


[引用] | 作者 C嬸 | 28-Dec-15 23:41 | [舉報垃圾留言]

去下見工就知人culture?

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 01:39

[10] Re: 亞力士
亞力士 :

//我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!
早幾年Triumph長期請人(笑)。
不過多女多是非,怕你招架唔嚟。
//
d女响公司是否只可載bra?



咁係咪剩係准戴bra唔准著底褲?


[引用] | 作者 摩連奴 | 28-Dec-15 23:11 | [舉報垃圾留言]

睇到多怕會不舉,diminishing marginal return.

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 01:38

[9] Re: fu

//我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!
早幾年Triumph長期請人(笑)。
不過多女多是非,怕你招架唔嚟。
//

d女响公司是否只可載bra?


[引用] | 作者 亞力士 | 28-Dec-15 21:45 | [舉報垃圾留言]

被請食波餅算不算是「被動收入」?

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 01:35

[8] Re: 不敗的魔術師

//我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!

早幾年Triumph長期請人(笑)。

不過多女多是非,怕你招架唔嚟。


[引用] | 作者 fu | 28-Dec-15 21:22 | [舉報垃圾留言]

怕醜仔(佬)另有風情.

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 29-Dec-15 01:33

[7]

魔術師,你好恨溝女咩?女之嘛!你肯隨便,行出街唔係男就係女啦!使乜愁?哈哈!


[引用] | 作者 C嬸 | 28-Dec-15 18:39 | [舉報垃圾留言]

Clubbing 最多女。

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 19:37

[6]

讀書人是孤獨的...

放低挑剔, 可能好快溝到女! 唔好打我.

點都好, 你有GROUND, 果邊亦有少量學術派的.

只是非學術而在 9UP 的人氣卻十分旺, 此乃正常現象, 睇開D.

同讀書一樣, 點讀得好? 同佢講勤力, 佢唔鐘意聽; 你講TIPS, 試場擾敵, 卻大受歡迎.


[引用] | 作者 HK70S | 28-Dec-15 17:39 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//放低挑剔, 可能好快溝到女!

我要去間多女的新公司(發夢mode )!

//同讀書一樣, 點讀得好? 同佢講勤力, 佢唔鐘意聽; 你講TIPS, 試場擾敵, 卻大受歡迎.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJ29RUajHhET4mPA-hyxesQ

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 19:41

[5]

呵。池某大鄉里出城,分唔清咩係「主動」咩係「被動」,只知道股息係投資收益。既然係投資,就會有風險,即係可能收得到可能收唔到;既然係投資,就梗係要成本,如果可以無視成本,而認為息是可以零成本下無中生有的收益,咁使鬼買股咩,跟池某賭馬好過啦,一場馬全餐買獨贏,(無視成本下)或多或少都會有收益,甚至一注獨贏(要一萬蚊以上一注),都至少有十厘「息」。
唉~最衰賭馬冇得「無限補時」...


[引用] | 作者 池裡漁 | 28-Dec-15 15:55 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//池某大鄉里出城,分唔清咩係「主動」咩係「被動」,只知道股息係投資收益。

這邊廂還在問「有人會反對債息是被動收入嗎?」,美帝政府不就是反對了嗎?人家泱泱民主大國,設下這樣的定義,可沒聽過有人拉布和公民抗命呢?

//一場馬全餐買獨贏,(無視成本下)或多或少都會有收益,甚至一注獨贏(要一萬蚊以上一注),都至少有十厘「息」。

10厘息好叻咩?我大你23厘息!

http://www.aastocks.com/tc/usq/quote/quote.aspx?symbol=GST-B

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 22:38

[4]

非常詳細解釋被動收入, 多年前我有位Blog友已經不認同零成本投資法.

謝謝分享.


[引用] | 作者 財務自由瘋子 | 28-Dec-15 10:41 | [舉報垃圾留言]

不要老是說別人如何如何,咁請問你自己又認唔認同呢?原因何在?可以分享一下想法嗎?

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 19:39

[3]

魔術師兄,流星現在開始明白為何這麼多人知道財演的本質,但財演仍然如此有市場, 而且地位牢不可破, 長做長有。

不是財演做得有多好,而是群眾自己選擇相信並接受財演的一套,因為那一套聽起來最簡單、也最舒服,而是否正確則根本無人理會。


[引用] | 作者 流星 | 28-Dec-15 01:56 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//因為那一套聽起來最簡單、也最舒服,而是否正確則根本無人理會。

只喜歡聽自己啱聽的說話,又貪又X,這才叫港豬呢,所以點埋歌俾佢地聽:

問太多根本不會講

無辦法接受現實 自製假想能延續故事

百篇短訊留言徒然又試 始終得不到妳在意

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 02:21

[2]

//其實呢種只是自欺欺人的說法

如果佢地一世只是睇住果$10000的「資本增值」,佢地的確係可以話該$10000已經升值了50%,沽出6667股就是「立於不敗之地」了。

不過現炒現賣,根據Kelly Criteria,你的總資本就已經是變成$15000,沽出多少(即f要如何變化),應該只是看升值的機會率p和潛在升幅b,而非看「總資本」變化若何。

當然幫佢兜埋:如果佢係要將該$10000排除在賭本以外,只將$5000再押落去,咁又吹佢地唔漲的。但這牽涉到人生的注碼分配,而且....佢地係唔會當呢d叫「賭本」,因為「價值投資」與「賭」無關。


[引用] | 作者 摩連奴 | 28-Dec-15 01:56 | [舉報垃圾留言]

//如果佢係要將該$10000排除在賭本以外,只將$5000再押落去,咁又吹佢地唔漲的

當佢地贏的一刻,身家已經由10000上升到15000, 已容不下他們不重新審視以15000如何「押注」,這是不爭的事實...

喔,不過,以「無限補時」觀, 佢地輸的時候是不會認輸, 持股直至永遠, 所以他們是不會「審視」輸了導致身家下降的;同樣道理,他們贏的時候,身家也應該沒有「上升」,那又為何會有多出來的5000元呢?

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 09:55

[1]

塘人已經寫過一篇簡單的, 不過信徒們中毒太深, 轉頭又已經打回原頭, 魔術師這篇寫的好好, 更詳盡地分析, 謝分享


[引用] | 作者 塘人 | 28-Dec-15 01:32 | [舉報垃圾留言]

教主出嚟一錘定音,加上光明左右使齊齊吶喊助威,一眾信念稍有動搖的嘍囉又豈敢造次?

[引用版主回覆] | 作者 不敗的魔術師 | 28-Dec-15 02:16